Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #757 of 1,000

P0216

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 14,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 531

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 469

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 990Deviation -R 4 479

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 469. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 907

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 073 to R 11 330
Finished ahead: 175 / 1,000 (17,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #699 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.32
Mean bets / session: 5.047
Loss multiplier: 1.0726×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,0% / 61,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3 78141 wagers · RTP 83,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 26133 wagers · RTP 23,00%

BlackjackR 3 09131 wagers · RTP 114,49%

CrashR 1 82719 wagers · RTP 160,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 31015 wagers · RTP 10,38%

American RouletteR 1 13911 wagers · RTP 23,53%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0879 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8869 wagers · RTP 61,96%

BaccaratR 8249 wagers · RTP 100,97%

European RouletteR 6697 wagers · RTP 34,68%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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