Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #593 of 1,000

P0217

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 49,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 276

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 724

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 829Deviation -R 1 895

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 724. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 679

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 620 to R 8 859
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #616 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.42
Mean bets / session: 5.108
Loss multiplier: 1.0148×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,9% / 69,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 84955 wagers · RTP 101,53%

BlackjackR 5 31043 wagers · RTP 70,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 53620 wagers · RTP 98,37%

CrashR 2 18418 wagers · RTP 115,64%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 03616 wagers · RTP 76,42%

European RouletteR 1 33511 wagers · RTP 69,89%

BaccaratR 1 33310 wagers · RTP 88,25%

American RouletteR 9237 wagers · RTP 112,57%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 6085 wagers · RTP 113,98%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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