Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #38 of 1,000

P0218

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 95,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 24 743

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 14 743

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 926Deviation R 15 668

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 14 743. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 490

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 615 to R 12 064
Finished ahead: 202 / 1,000 (20,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #669 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.406
Mean bets / session: 3.513
Loss multiplier: 1.0315×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,9% / 45,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 91831 wagers · RTP 95,57%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 75227 wagers · RTP 97,18%

BlackjackR 4 25225 wagers · RTP 112,83%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 51314 wagers · RTP 785,04%

European RouletteR 1 94511 wagers · RTP 86,32%

BaccaratR 1 61111 wagers · RTP 87,83%

American RouletteR 1 2038 wagers · RTP 58,85%

CrashR 8606 wagers · RTP 18,17%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3332 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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