Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #884 of 1,000

P0219

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 0,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 493

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 507

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 535Deviation -R 6 971

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 507. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 908

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 967 to R 7 328
Finished ahead: 177 / 1,000 (17,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #748 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.666
Mean bets / session: 3.133
Loss multiplier: 1.0049×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,5% / 50,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 3 87124 wagers · RTP 28,27%

Craps / DiceR 3 78930 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 92522 wagers · RTP 86,03%

American RouletteR 1 86611 wagers · RTP 7,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 81613 wagers · RTP 56,88%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 62115 wagers · RTP 110,21%

BaccaratR 1 2067 wagers · RTP 203,73%

European RouletteR 8287 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3514 wagers · RTP 14,81%

Lottery / JackpotR 3445 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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