Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #195 of 1,000

P0221

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 78,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 186

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 186

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 933Deviation R 1 119

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 186. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 766

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 014 to R 9 797
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #688 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.58
Mean bets / session: 3.711
Loss multiplier: 1.0184×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 49,0% / 45,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 72844 wagers · RTP 73,58%

BlackjackR 6 74834 wagers · RTP 114,43%

European RouletteR 3 87822 wagers · RTP 107,37%

BaccaratR 3 21715 wagers · RTP 112,38%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 80412 wagers · RTP 51,65%

American RouletteR 2 06110 wagers · RTP 77,15%

CrashR 1 92211 wagers · RTP 78,30%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2886 wagers · RTP 14,60%

Three-Reel SlotR 9806 wagers · RTP 526,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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