Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #720 of 1,000

P0222

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 7,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 282

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 718

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 605Deviation -R 4 113

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 718. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 393

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 905 to R 7 530
Finished ahead: 208 / 1,000 (20,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #584 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,26% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.73
Mean bets / session: 3.433
Loss multiplier: 1.0266×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,1% / 63,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3 70737 wagers · RTP 77,91%

BlackjackR 2 81429 wagers · RTP 103,25%

American RouletteR 2 72727 wagers · RTP 28,64%

European RouletteR 1 42015 wagers · RTP 108,94%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 30413 wagers · RTP 84,84%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 09711 wagers · RTP 38,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8719 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 6276 wagers · RTP 108,25%

Lottery / JackpotR 6167 wagers · RTP 32,47%

BaccaratR 2473 wagers · RTP 75,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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