Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #505 of 1,000

P0223

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 64,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 109

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 891

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 938Deviation -R 952

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 891. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 316

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 648 to R 11 482
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #665 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.388
Mean bets / session: 4.327
Loss multiplier: 1.0247×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,4% / 49,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 10 12353 wagers · RTP 117,67%

Craps / DiceR 6 79636 wagers · RTP 99,23%

American RouletteR 3 25317 wagers · RTP 73,90%

European RouletteR 2 84615 wagers · RTP 52,18%

CrashR 1 5228 wagers · RTP 110,99%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4988 wagers · RTP 79,95%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7684 wagers · RTP 35,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3752 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3742 wagers · RTP 150,27%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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