Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #701 of 1,000

P0224

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 43,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 591

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 409

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 943Deviation -R 2 466

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 409. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 899

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 966 to R 8 491
Finished ahead: 193 / 1,000 (19,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #696 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,91% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.702
Mean bets / session: 3.418
Loss multiplier: 1.0014×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,6% / 70,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 84138 wagers · RTP 106,94%

Craps / DiceR 4 22131 wagers · RTP 115,02%

BaccaratR 3 71630 wagers · RTP 47,23%

CrashR 1 86814 wagers · RTP 101,47%

European RouletteR 1 3119 wagers · RTP 22,20%

Three-Reel SlotR 8166 wagers · RTP 101,16%

American RouletteR 7396 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6615 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6425 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3934 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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