Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #821 of 1,000

P0225

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 12,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 201

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 799

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 714Deviation -R 5 085

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 799. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 361

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 290 to R 10 685
Finished ahead: 186 / 1,000 (18,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #723 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.663
Mean bets / session: 5.397
Loss multiplier: 1.0167×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,6% / 53,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 7 68548 wagers · RTP 76,66%

Craps / DiceR 7 28449 wagers · RTP 62,92%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 03933 wagers · RTP 169,87%

American RouletteR 4 01728 wagers · RTP 50,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 44622 wagers · RTP 25,77%

CrashR 2 04615 wagers · RTP 122,90%

European RouletteR 1 77711 wagers · RTP 50,98%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 71811 wagers · RTP 59,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 89010 wagers · RTP 17,30%

BaccaratR 8705 wagers · RTP 164,60%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies