Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #693 of 1,000

P0226

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 48,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 683

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 317

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 812Deviation -R 3 505

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 317. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 251

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 801 to R 15 509
Finished ahead: 186 / 1,000 (18,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #714 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.359
Mean bets / session: 4.648
Loss multiplier: 1.0028×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,7% / 65,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 61748 wagers · RTP 86,72%

Craps / DiceR 5 81443 wagers · RTP 102,17%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 85037 wagers · RTP 32,41%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 96415 wagers · RTP 198,60%

CrashR 1 93914 wagers · RTP 45,54%

European RouletteR 1 86414 wagers · RTP 30,36%

BaccaratR 1 47711 wagers · RTP 130,84%

American RouletteR 6525 wagers · RTP 109,36%

Lottery / JackpotR 5956 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2912 wagers · RTP 172,16%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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