Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #35 of 1,000

P0227

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 94,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 25 417

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 15 417

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 399Deviation R 18 817

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 15 417. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 073

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 607 to R 17 162
Finished ahead: 190 / 1,000 (19,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #795 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.601
Mean bets / session: 5.86
Loss multiplier: 1.0492×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,4% / 77,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 42 70680 wagers · RTP 93,09%

BlackjackR 32 92461 wagers · RTP 86,75%

CrashR 9 28919 wagers · RTP 75,36%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 79516 wagers · RTP 73,72%

European RouletteR 7 07213 wagers · RTP 84,62%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 00020 wagers · RTP 695,00%

American RouletteR 4 8969 wagers · RTP 88,89%

BaccaratR 4 3528 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 50014 wagers · RTP 53,57%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 00020 wagers · RTP 20,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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