Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #700 of 1,000

P0228

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 27,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 598

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 402

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 885Deviation -R 3 517

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 402. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 188

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 721 to R 8 421
Finished ahead: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #653 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.977
Mean bets / session: 4.394
Loss multiplier: 1.052×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,6% / 63,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 56845 wagers · RTP 100,96%

Craps / DiceR 3 52536 wagers · RTP 104,96%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 26535 wagers · RTP 84,49%

European RouletteR 2 45325 wagers · RTP 95,56%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 41425 wagers · RTP 39,69%

American RouletteR 1 70418 wagers · RTP 56,75%

CrashR 1 65617 wagers · RTP 56,46%

BaccaratR 1 12212 wagers · RTP 124,27%

Lottery / JackpotR 93411 wagers · RTP 21,41%

Three-Reel SlotR 6668 wagers · RTP 5,48%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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