Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #667 of 1,000

P0229

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 34,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 031

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 969

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 791Deviation -R 3 178

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 969. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 021

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 098 to R 11 357
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #639 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.513
Mean bets / session: 3.269
Loss multiplier: 1.0133×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,5% / 53,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 4 18324 wagers · RTP 55,50%

Craps / DiceR 3 63021 wagers · RTP 93,66%

BlackjackR 3 20819 wagers · RTP 81,42%

BaccaratR 1 90511 wagers · RTP 107,38%

American RouletteR 1 5619 wagers · RTP 145,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4789 wagers · RTP 86,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3427 wagers · RTP 12,93%

European RouletteR 1 3108 wagers · RTP 110,61%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 18,18%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8815 wagers · RTP 99,32%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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