Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #675 of 1,000

P0231

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 19,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 930

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 070

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 779Deviation -R 3 291

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 070. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 334

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 396 to R 7 149
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #578 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.398
Mean bets / session: 4.124
Loss multiplier: 1.0776×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,8% / 48,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 97132 wagers · RTP 68,86%

Craps / DiceR 4 52231 wagers · RTP 92,53%

European RouletteR 3 60424 wagers · RTP 34,71%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 71812 wagers · RTP 118,09%

American RouletteR 1 66410 wagers · RTP 144,11%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 60311 wagers · RTP 60,14%

BaccaratR 1 4249 wagers · RTP 82,63%

CrashR 1 2889 wagers · RTP 179,66%

Lottery / JackpotR 7998 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 6865 wagers · RTP 68,51%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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