Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #698 of 1,000

P0232

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 10,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 631

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 369

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 593Deviation -R 3 776

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 369. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 287

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 884 to R 7 421
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #577 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.277
Mean bets / session: 4.044
Loss multiplier: 1.0687×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,3% / 46,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 58630 wagers · RTP 117,54%

Craps / DiceR 2 77324 wagers · RTP 92,61%

American RouletteR 2 45422 wagers · RTP 21,03%

CrashR 1 12810 wagers · RTP 44,61%

Lottery / JackpotR 99210 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 7166 wagers · RTP 53,63%

BaccaratR 6065 wagers · RTP 75,30%

Three-Reel SlotR 6036 wagers · RTP 16,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5965 wagers · RTP 113,66%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4694 wagers · RTP 28,78%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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