Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #738 of 1,000

P0233

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 37,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 958

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 042

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 972Deviation -R 4 069

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 042. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 101

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 262 to R 16 339
Finished ahead: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #706 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.571
Mean bets / session: 4.917
Loss multiplier: 1.0233×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,6% / 54,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 84262 wagers · RTP 88,67%

Craps / DiceR 6 66848 wagers · RTP 102,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 84512 wagers · RTP 74,96%

American RouletteR 1 73713 wagers · RTP 34,02%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 68112 wagers · RTP 7,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 66913 wagers · RTP 57,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 107,69%

CrashR 1 1659 wagers · RTP 146,03%

BaccaratR 1 1058 wagers · RTP 84,00%

European RouletteR 8136 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies