Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #3 of 1,000

P0235

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 99,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 60 520

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 50 520

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 001Deviation R 53 522

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 50 520. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 656

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 451 to R 12 094
Finished ahead: 187 / 1,000 (18,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #779 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.724
Mean bets / session: 4.612
Loss multiplier: 1.0593×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,8% / 51,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 17 27444 wagers · RTP 120,79%

Craps / DiceR 11 76829 wagers · RTP 113,19%

Three-Reel SlotR 9 35739 wagers · RTP 260,74%

BaccaratR 8 06618 wagers · RTP 87,81%

European RouletteR 5 05114 wagers · RTP 100,69%

American RouletteR 3 87410 wagers · RTP 187,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 86910 wagers · RTP 67,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 72316 wagers · RTP 933,39%

CrashR 2 2927 wagers · RTP 54,45%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 42,86%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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