Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #655 of 1,000

P0236

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 68,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 223

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 777

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 230Deviation -R 2 547

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 777. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 767

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 283 to R 21 664
Finished ahead: 180 / 1,000 (18,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #786 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.9
Mean bets / session: 3.31
Loss multiplier: 1.0483×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,8% / 58,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 02836 wagers · RTP 111,24%

Craps / DiceR 5 98733 wagers · RTP 63,91%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 37132 wagers · RTP 52,39%

CrashR 2 04911 wagers · RTP 63,81%

BaccaratR 1 91512 wagers · RTP 82,72%

American RouletteR 1 82312 wagers · RTP 118,49%

European RouletteR 1 4029 wagers · RTP 211,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0557 wagers · RTP 93,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 9997 wagers · RTP 70,17%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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