Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #646 of 1,000

P0237

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 41,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 505

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 495

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 977Deviation -R 2 518

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 495. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 874

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 851 to R 6 073
Finished ahead: 216 / 1,000 (21,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #627 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.578
Mean bets / session: 4.167
Loss multiplier: 1.0267×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,6% / 48,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 21255 wagers · RTP 90,08%

BlackjackR 7 39744 wagers · RTP 86,26%

American RouletteR 2 98217 wagers · RTP 37,63%

European RouletteR 2 47615 wagers · RTP 78,88%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4259 wagers · RTP 38,88%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4169 wagers · RTP 63,70%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 16,67%

CrashR 1 1777 wagers · RTP 338,79%

BaccaratR 8815 wagers · RTP 93,06%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7225 wagers · RTP 162,77%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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