Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #787 of 1,000

P0238

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 28,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 946

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 054

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 098Deviation -R 4 956

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 054. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 569

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 617 to R 18 866
Finished ahead: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #732 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.675
Mean bets / session: 3.367
Loss multiplier: 1.0767×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,2% / 55,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 82331 wagers · RTP 104,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 77328 wagers · RTP 103,75%

Craps / DiceR 4 99623 wagers · RTP 78,90%

American RouletteR 3 03614 wagers · RTP 50,99%

BaccaratR 2 91912 wagers · RTP 67,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 60512 wagers · RTP 55,74%

European RouletteR 1 7229 wagers · RTP 78,16%

CrashR 1 6588 wagers · RTP 15,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0696 wagers · RTP 106,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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