Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #781 of 1,000

P0239

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 8,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 068

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 932

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 110Deviation -R 4 822

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 932. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 340

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 200 to R 9 286
Finished ahead: 190 / 1,000 (19,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #660 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.256
Mean bets / session: 3.294
Loss multiplier: 1.0369×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,5% / 64,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2 42619 wagers · RTP 54,82%

BlackjackR 2 36217 wagers · RTP 80,14%

CrashR 1 90316 wagers · RTP 84,21%

American RouletteR 1 74913 wagers · RTP 63,81%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 54513 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 47111 wagers · RTP 64,89%

BaccaratR 7646 wagers · RTP 110,73%

European RouletteR 6506 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6235 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3814 wagers · RTP 52,49%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies