Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #111 of 1,000

P0240

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 90,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 263

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 263

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 218Deviation R 4 481

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 263. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 101

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 515 to R 7 144
Finished ahead: 140 / 1,000 (14,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #755 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.602
Mean bets / session: 4.825
Loss multiplier: 1.0451×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,4% / 55,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 9 44743 wagers · RTP 109,67%

Craps / DiceR 8 93739 wagers · RTP 102,05%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 40034 wagers · RTP 41,18%

American RouletteR 3 18114 wagers · RTP 103,36%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 00814 wagers · RTP 112,60%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 17110 wagers · RTP 20,87%

European RouletteR 2 15310 wagers · RTP 365,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 6017 wagers · RTP 83,20%

CrashR 1 0755 wagers · RTP 28,28%

BaccaratR 1 0575 wagers · RTP 74,55%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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