Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #17 of 1,000

P0241

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 97,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 34 178

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 24 178

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 554Deviation R 25 732

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 24 178. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 905

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 147 to R 14 898
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #745 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,59% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.39
Mean bets / session: 4.893
Loss multiplier: 1.0736×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,5% / 73,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 90831 wagers · RTP 95,08%

Craps / DiceR 5 78527 wagers · RTP 85,50%

European RouletteR 5 58325 wagers · RTP 54,25%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 81113 wagers · RTP 61,97%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 75912 wagers · RTP 1 075,06%

American RouletteR 2 66812 wagers · RTP 43,67%

CrashR 1 8078 wagers · RTP 96,71%

BaccaratR 1 3346 wagers · RTP 104,80%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2586 wagers · RTP 455,88%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 18,18%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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