Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #696 of 1,000

P0242

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 29,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 636

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 364

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 782Deviation -R 3 582

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 364. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 078

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 065 to R 10 184
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #647 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,75% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.277
Mean bets / session: 4.098
Loss multiplier: 1.0266×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,4% / 75,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 76432 wagers · RTP 106,51%

BlackjackR 3 03820 wagers · RTP 104,11%

American RouletteR 2 91918 wagers · RTP 163,58%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 34915 wagers · RTP 16,07%

European RouletteR 1 93512 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 51710 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 2879 wagers · RTP 51,36%

CrashR 1 2017 wagers · RTP 43,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 120,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5043 wagers · RTP 75,44%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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