Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #841 of 1,000

P0243

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 1,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 808

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 192

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 674Deviation -R 5 518

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 192. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 788

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 603 to R 6 205
Finished ahead: 161 / 1,000 (16,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #688 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.425
Mean bets / session: 4.3
Loss multiplier: 1.0621×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,7% / 55,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 18958 wagers · RTP 94,97%

Craps / DiceR 3 72537 wagers · RTP 61,61%

European RouletteR 1 18810 wagers · RTP 34,60%

American RouletteR 1 15211 wagers · RTP 54,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 05314 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9609 wagers · RTP 22,93%

Three-Reel SlotR 91511 wagers · RTP 31,26%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8107 wagers · RTP 19,88%

BaccaratR 6888 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4776 wagers · RTP 17,56%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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