Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #639 of 1,000

P0244

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 38,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 653

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 347

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 883Deviation -R 2 464

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 347. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 725

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 313 to R 9 609
Finished ahead: 209 / 1,000 (20,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #617 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.672
Mean bets / session: 3.223
Loss multiplier: 1.0182×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,8% / 76,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 23533 wagers · RTP 83,42%

BaccaratR 3 06424 wagers · RTP 91,32%

BlackjackR 2 70821 wagers · RTP 107,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 49319 wagers · RTP 57,40%

CrashR 1 63212 wagers · RTP 36,52%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 47411 wagers · RTP 167,77%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9557 wagers · RTP 159,55%

European RouletteR 8927 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 6655 wagers · RTP 46,92%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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