Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #783 of 1,000

P0245

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 41,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 019

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 981

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 134Deviation -R 3 846

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 981. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 316

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 025 to R 10 817
Finished ahead: 163 / 1,000 (16,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #766 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.334
Mean bets / session: 5.435
Loss multiplier: 1.0367×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 51,8% / 78,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 5 57236 wagers · RTP 65,56%

Craps / DiceR 4 76737 wagers · RTP 39,02%

BlackjackR 3 02924 wagers · RTP 85,82%

European RouletteR 2 72019 wagers · RTP 58,68%

BaccaratR 2 24316 wagers · RTP 131,21%

CrashR 1 71215 wagers · RTP 72,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 33914 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 21911 wagers · RTP 168,25%

American RouletteR 1 16910 wagers · RTP 92,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4463 wagers · RTP 271,08%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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