Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #883 of 1,000

P0246

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 8,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 543

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 457

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 659Deviation -R 6 798

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 457. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 489

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 662 to R 16 229
Finished ahead: 134 / 1,000 (13,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #812 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.832
Mean bets / session: 3.142
Loss multiplier: 1.0681×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,6% / 55,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 05835 wagers · RTP 86,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 94928 wagers · RTP 39,07%

Craps / DiceR 3 66628 wagers · RTP 39,55%

American RouletteR 1 4179 wagers · RTP 39,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 37610 wagers · RTP 131,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 22513 wagers · RTP 32,65%

BaccaratR 1 0309 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 9747 wagers · RTP 10,01%

European RouletteR 1322 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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