Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #28 of 1,000

P0247

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 96,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 28 597

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 18 597

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 043Deviation R 19 640

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 18 597. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 848

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 422 to R 11 765
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #632 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.554
Mean bets / session: 3.58
Loss multiplier: 1.0538×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,0% / 67,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 83539 wagers · RTP 93,83%

BlackjackR 10 11128 wagers · RTP 68,76%

American RouletteR 3 1399 wagers · RTP 223,16%

CrashR 3 02710 wagers · RTP 105,47%

BaccaratR 2 4659 wagers · RTP 163,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5867 wagers · RTP 42,40%

European RouletteR 1 2776 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2656 wagers · RTP 1 624,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1876 wagers · RTP 51,95%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 142,86%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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