Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #767 of 1,000

P0248

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 348

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 652

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 232Deviation -R 4 419

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 652. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 209

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 691 to R 21 064
Finished ahead: 179 / 1,000 (17,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #802 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.914
Mean bets / session: 4.547
Loss multiplier: 1.002×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,8% / 69,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 56050 wagers · RTP 107,96%

BlackjackR 6 11744 wagers · RTP 90,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 68032 wagers · RTP 20,24%

European RouletteR 2 44616 wagers · RTP 81,81%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 43117 wagers · RTP 52,09%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 87919 wagers · RTP 21,29%

BaccaratR 1 76011 wagers · RTP 50,36%

American RouletteR 1 70013 wagers · RTP 222,35%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 58910 wagers · RTP 53,05%

CrashR 1 44011 wagers · RTP 153,30%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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