Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #766 of 1,000

P0249

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 23,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 373

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 627

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 787Deviation -R 4 839

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 627. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 900

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 175 to R 13 768
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #699 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.501
Mean bets / session: 3.329
Loss multiplier: 1.0345×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,2% / 61,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 5 03226 wagers · RTP 116,02%

Craps / DiceR 4 77325 wagers · RTP 75,55%

BlackjackR 4 55123 wagers · RTP 82,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 35512 wagers · RTP 6,11%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9058 wagers · RTP 48,55%

European RouletteR 1 5848 wagers · RTP 111,87%

American RouletteR 9644 wagers · RTP 101,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 7094 wagers · RTP 29,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BaccaratR 5732 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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