Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #732 of 1,000

P0250

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 43,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 096

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 904

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 800Deviation -R 3 104

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 904. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 531

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 993 to R 7 767
Finished ahead: 154 / 1,000 (15,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #731 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.504
Mean bets / session: 5.701
Loss multiplier: 1.0399×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,7% / 67,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 57547 wagers · RTP 130,96%

Craps / DiceR 4 56446 wagers · RTP 89,07%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 91844 wagers · RTP 24,04%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 48424 wagers · RTP 107,25%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 40823 wagers · RTP 27,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 35924 wagers · RTP 35,78%

CrashR 1 95221 wagers · RTP 111,39%

American RouletteR 1 75217 wagers · RTP 162,44%

European RouletteR 1 57014 wagers · RTP 34,14%

BaccaratR 1 43114 wagers · RTP 96,16%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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