Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #839 of 1,000

P0251

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 14,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 894

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 106

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 626Deviation -R 5 480

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 106. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 000

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 835 to R 10 619
Finished ahead: 176 / 1,000 (17,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.768
Mean bets / session: 5.669
Loss multiplier: 1.0122×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,4% / 50,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 05660 wagers · RTP 83,58%

BlackjackR 6 87851 wagers · RTP 94,04%

European RouletteR 6 58946 wagers · RTP 76,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 46525 wagers · RTP 76,68%

American RouletteR 2 69121 wagers · RTP 96,66%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 02615 wagers · RTP 12,98%

CrashR 1 75313 wagers · RTP 109,10%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0279 wagers · RTP 106,30%

Lottery / JackpotR 98310 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7096 wagers · RTP 39,21%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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