Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #810 of 1,000

P0252

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 23,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 472

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 528

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 048Deviation -R 5 480

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 528. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 611

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 710 to R 17 093
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #733 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.648
Mean bets / session: 5.017
Loss multiplier: 1.0769×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,3% / 57,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 7 63052 wagers · RTP 101,26%

BlackjackR 5 21932 wagers · RTP 110,08%

American RouletteR 4 94732 wagers · RTP 52,13%

BaccaratR 1 98414 wagers · RTP 45,90%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 82511 wagers · RTP 13,70%

CrashR 1 71111 wagers · RTP 33,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 66511 wagers · RTP 105,09%

European RouletteR 1 48710 wagers · RTP 112,84%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4258 wagers · RTP 84,46%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 04611 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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