Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #730 of 1,000

P0253

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 33,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 128

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 872

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 048Deviation -R 3 824

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 872. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 654

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 909 to R 11 261
Finished ahead: 205 / 1,000 (20,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #683 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.395
Mean bets / session: 4.761
Loss multiplier: 1.0521×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,6% / 55,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 10 76656 wagers · RTP 112,62%

Craps / DiceR 7 67341 wagers · RTP 97,80%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 52113 wagers · RTP 48,94%

American RouletteR 1 70611 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 4108 wagers · RTP 147,01%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 28,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3128 wagers · RTP 35,63%

CrashR 1 1287 wagers · RTP 30,59%

European RouletteR 8265 wagers · RTP 35,11%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7784 wagers · RTP 26,99%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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