Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #108 of 1,000

P0254

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 85,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 668

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 668

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 396Deviation R 4 064

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 668. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 214

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 566 to R 10 456
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #652 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.544
Mean bets / session: 4.169
Loss multiplier: 1.0691×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,3% / 47,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 10 93236 wagers · RTP 111,56%

BlackjackR 10 56535 wagers · RTP 86,08%

Craps / DiceR 8 32329 wagers · RTP 91,67%

CrashR 4 56913 wagers · RTP 95,73%

American RouletteR 3 41410 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 91612 wagers · RTP 97,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 2667 wagers · RTP 67,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7017 wagers · RTP 28,04%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 866,67%

European RouletteR 9813 wagers · RTP 103,36%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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