Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #786 of 1,000

P0255

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 22,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 961

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 039

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 161Deviation -R 4 878

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 039. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 283

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 262 to R 9 060
Finished ahead: 183 / 1,000 (18,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #719 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.354
Mean bets / session: 5.464
Loss multiplier: 1.0172×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,1% / 57,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 26943 wagers · RTP 84,32%

BlackjackR 6 00040 wagers · RTP 103,80%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 58629 wagers · RTP 87,06%

American RouletteR 2 79318 wagers · RTP 25,06%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 31616 wagers · RTP 126,00%

CrashR 1 61612 wagers · RTP 81,65%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 25,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 39811 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 1839 wagers · RTP 92,54%

European RouletteR 7226 wagers · RTP 69,94%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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