Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #742 of 1,000

P0256

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 55,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 843

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 157

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 366Deviation -R 3 791

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 157. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 685

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 217 to R 25 251
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #781 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.903
Mean bets / session: 3.26
Loss multiplier: 1.031×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,0% / 47,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 11 07341 wagers · RTP 98,32%

Craps / DiceR 8 55930 wagers · RTP 103,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 19022 wagers · RTP 9,42%

BaccaratR 3 65013 wagers · RTP 131,75%

American RouletteR 3 47312 wagers · RTP 90,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 89010 wagers · RTP 109,97%

CrashR 2 87710 wagers · RTP 114,31%

European RouletteR 1 3135 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2455 wagers · RTP 20,08%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 120,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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