Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #825 of 1,000

P0257

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 23,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 165

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 835

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 445Deviation -R 5 390

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 835. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 139

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 987 to R 16 681
Finished ahead: 210 / 1,000 (21,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #757 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.416
Mean bets / session: 5.183
Loss multiplier: 1.029×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,7% / 57,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 44255 wagers · RTP 88,94%

BlackjackR 6 32737 wagers · RTP 76,80%

CrashR 2 39814 wagers · RTP 48,01%

European RouletteR 2 30814 wagers · RTP 162,87%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 19214 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 69912 wagers · RTP 148,26%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 6108 wagers · RTP 42,24%

American RouletteR 1 5898 wagers · RTP 34,49%

Lottery / JackpotR 98410 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6395 wagers · RTP 68,73%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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