Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #72 of 1,000

P0258

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 90,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 620

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 620

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 549Deviation R 7 169

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 620. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 232

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 808 to R 11 352
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #654 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.376
Mean bets / session: 4.754
Loss multiplier: 1.038×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,3% / 52,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 95244 wagers · RTP 110,94%

BlackjackR 10 47840 wagers · RTP 109,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 69826 wagers · RTP 104,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 39219 wagers · RTP 79,42%

American RouletteR 3 82915 wagers · RTP 40,22%

CrashR 2 74512 wagers · RTP 253,11%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 51711 wagers · RTP 89,99%

BaccaratR 1 7287 wagers · RTP 125,21%

European RouletteR 1 3546 wagers · RTP 288,26%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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