Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #683 of 1,000

P0259

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 9,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 754

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 246

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 458Deviation -R 3 788

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 246. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 005

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 754 to R 7 512
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #541 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.576
Mean bets / session: 3.401
Loss multiplier: 1.0615×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,5% / 60,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 05839 wagers · RTP 101,79%

Craps / DiceR 2 70526 wagers · RTP 108,91%

CrashR 1 85816 wagers · RTP 50,52%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 23413 wagers · RTP 71,27%

BaccaratR 1 13510 wagers · RTP 24,22%

European RouletteR 1 0459 wagers · RTP 25,55%

American RouletteR 1 0209 wagers · RTP 29,71%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7006 wagers · RTP 95,13%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6255 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2723 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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