Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #537 of 1,000

P0261

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 49,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 847

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 153

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 698Deviation -R 1 455

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 153. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 072

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 636 to R 4 974
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #555 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,35% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.503
Mean bets / session: 3.601
Loss multiplier: 1.0035×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,9% / 79,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 76144 wagers · RTP 89,20%

Craps / DiceR 2 64325 wagers · RTP 97,88%

BlackjackR 2 47823 wagers · RTP 118,97%

CrashR 9699 wagers · RTP 73,01%

American RouletteR 9008 wagers · RTP 39,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

BaccaratR 7717 wagers · RTP 79,12%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4684 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 4554 wagers · RTP 102,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4084 wagers · RTP 94,21%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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