Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #29 of 1,000

P0262

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 97,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 27 765

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 17 765

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 164Deviation R 18 929

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 17 765. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 856

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 614 to R 10 581
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #624 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.313
Mean bets / session: 3.008
Loss multiplier: 1.0369×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,6% / 54,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 01321 wagers · RTP 124,80%

BlackjackR 7 84119 wagers · RTP 120,00%

American RouletteR 7 15018 wagers · RTP 58,36%

European RouletteR 3 3228 wagers · RTP 27,27%

BaccaratR 2 6867 wagers · RTP 57,09%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9017 wagers · RTP 66,35%

CrashR 1 8124 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8594 wagers · RTP 2 599,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 6783 wagers · RTP 73,75%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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