Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #758 of 1,000

P0263

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 32,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 498

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 502

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 247Deviation -R 4 254

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 502. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 201

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 375 to R 16 448
Finished ahead: 212 / 1,000 (21,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #709 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,27% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.65
Mean bets / session: 4.253
Loss multiplier: 1.0103×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,6% / 63,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 83255 wagers · RTP 114,79%

Craps / DiceR 4 86130 wagers · RTP 105,06%

American RouletteR 2 30715 wagers · RTP 30,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 30514 wagers · RTP 6,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 28114 wagers · RTP 103,61%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 03213 wagers · RTP 73,79%

European RouletteR 1 77410 wagers · RTP 51,80%

CrashR 1 6429 wagers · RTP 104,42%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 9666 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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