Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #435 of 1,000

P0264

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 76,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 806

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 194

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 865Deviation R 671

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 194. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 821

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 694 to R 5 311
Finished ahead: 164 / 1,000 (16,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #693 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,65% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.961
Mean bets / session: 3.856
Loss multiplier: 1.079×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,6% / 69,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 5 50043 wagers · RTP 93,00%

Craps / DiceR 5 00437 wagers · RTP 117,51%

BaccaratR 4 31230 wagers · RTP 91,72%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 55720 wagers · RTP 190,93%

CrashR 1 78313 wagers · RTP 77,89%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 68412 wagers · RTP 17,16%

European RouletteR 1 46011 wagers · RTP 54,73%

American RouletteR 1 3409 wagers · RTP 61,12%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2368 wagers · RTP 92,13%

Lottery / JackpotR 5846 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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