Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #663 of 1,000

P0265

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 41,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 107

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 893

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 901Deviation -R 2 992

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 893. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 299

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 205 to R 9 776
Finished ahead: 203 / 1,000 (20,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #660 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,03% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.419
Mean bets / session: 3.682
Loss multiplier: 1.0086×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,4% / 49,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 00636 wagers · RTP 81,52%

Craps / DiceR 5 15031 wagers · RTP 111,81%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 67922 wagers · RTP 75,58%

BaccaratR 1 82612 wagers · RTP 104,21%

American RouletteR 1 74610 wagers · RTP 84,42%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 67410 wagers · RTP 8,72%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 1967 wagers · RTP 70,65%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9736 wagers · RTP 135,80%

CrashR 8435 wagers · RTP 151,39%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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