Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #705 of 1,000

P0266

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 32,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 488

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 512

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 662Deviation -R 3 850

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 512. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 694

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 238 to R 12 462
Finished ahead: 193 / 1,000 (19,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #683 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.341
Mean bets / session: 3.616
Loss multiplier: 1.0006×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,9% / 70,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 36325 wagers · RTP 114,15%

Craps / DiceR 2 25618 wagers · RTP 146,72%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 71313 wagers · RTP 7,53%

European RouletteR 1 64811 wagers · RTP 12,50%

BaccaratR 1 60312 wagers · RTP 75,18%

CrashR 1 42910 wagers · RTP 84,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1299 wagers · RTP 18,25%

American RouletteR 9027 wagers · RTP 80,16%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7115 wagers · RTP 59,35%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies