Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #608 of 1,000

P0267

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 28,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 019

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 981

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 746Deviation -R 2 236

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 981. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 158

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 285 to R 4 965
Finished ahead: 199 / 1,000 (19,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #560 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.291
Mean bets / session: 4.01
Loss multiplier: 1.0162×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,7% / 52,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 05837 wagers · RTP 94,06%

BlackjackR 2 50023 wagers · RTP 115,42%

BaccaratR 1 77716 wagers · RTP 54,76%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 04110 wagers · RTP 21,90%

Three-Reel SlotR 9108 wagers · RTP 42,86%

American RouletteR 6826 wagers · RTP 38,42%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5465 wagers · RTP 206,96%

CrashR 4624 wagers · RTP 48,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4334 wagers · RTP 142,73%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies