Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #844 of 1,000

P0270

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 44,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 671

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 329

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 910Deviation -R 4 419

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 329. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 034

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 876 to R 5 566
Finished ahead: 87 / 1,000 (8,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #831 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.693
Mean bets / session: 5.75
Loss multiplier: 1.0231×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,2% / 70,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 21757 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BlackjackR 5 82044 wagers · RTP 82,89%

Lottery / JackpotR 3 25840 wagers · RTP 18,85%

American RouletteR 2 79120 wagers · RTP 122,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 36319 wagers · RTP 16,38%

European RouletteR 1 84514 wagers · RTP 74,91%

BaccaratR 1 84317 wagers · RTP 166,03%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 65412 wagers · RTP 140,72%

CrashR 1 40013 wagers · RTP 72,71%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2989 wagers · RTP 30,46%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies