Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #462 of 1,000

P0271

Medium bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 71,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 446

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 554

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 463Deviation -R 91

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 554. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 428

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 701 to R 14 021
Finished ahead: 218 / 1,000 (21,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #726 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.822
Mean bets / session: 4.73
Loss multiplier: 1.0621×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,2% / 60,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 8 52345 wagers · RTP 109,01%

Craps / DiceR 7 72942 wagers · RTP 86,66%

European RouletteR 5 37229 wagers · RTP 136,99%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 25824 wagers · RTP 53,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 84015 wagers · RTP 44,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 55314 wagers · RTP 53,21%

CrashR 2 48113 wagers · RTP 194,09%

American RouletteR 2 12411 wagers · RTP 147,46%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 80018 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 5498 wagers · RTP 94,82%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies